Updated 11:37 a.m. Moscow Time
MOSCOW, November 10 (RIA Novosti) – The Russian Central Bank has dumped the idea of developing a stress scenario for the development of the economy that would account for oil prices hitting $60 per barrel and believes oil prices will not drop below $80 per barrel up to 2017, the bank said in a statement Monday.
The most pessimistic economic forecast also takes into consideration western sanctions that will most likely remain in place until the end of 2017, the statement reads.
The Central Bank has also raised its forecast of capital outflow for 2014 to $128 billion against the earlier predicted $90 billion.
“The results on the net personal outflow of capital for 2014 is assessed at the level of $128 billion, which is higher than the forecast,” the statement reads.
Russia’s economy will be stable even if the price of oil in 2015-2017 remains at $80 per barrel and western sanctions remain as the country’s Central Bank can use instruments to slow inflation to 6-6.5 percent in 2015 and to 4-4.6 percent to the end of 2017, Central Bank First Deputy Chair Kseniya Yudayeva said.
“The Russian economy will be stable even if the price of oil remains at $80 per barrel throughout 2015-2017 and [western] sanctions are not reversed. The Central Bank has instruments it can use in any development of events to gradually lower inflation to 4.0-4.6 percent by the end of 2017, and approximately 6.0-6.5 percent in 2015,” Yudayeva said.
The Central Bank’s base scenario suggests that oil prices will return to $95 per barrel in 2015 and will be corrected to $92 per barrel by 2017.
Yudayeva said Russia’s economy would grow by more than 3 percent under favorable conditions, but even if conditions turned negative, the economy would still have a positive outcome by 2017.
“In a favorable development of events, economic growth will be more than 3 percent by 2017, but even if there is a negative scenario, growth will still be positive,” Yudayeva said.
No comments :
Post a Comment